Well, here in lies the problem with this logic. Already two large PC companies have decided to keep on XP support for their products, all their new products that is. Dell and HP both. They also both offer Ubuntu pre-installed. So really, they are just extending legacy support. MS will have a chance to bounce back with Vienna and learn from their mistakes in Vista. I wouldn't doubt if Vista ends up being WindowsME II, and just like how windows 2000 saved them, Vienna will save Vista. That is of course just my guess, you could be right. I mean everyone could literally switch, but I think it would cost too much. Instead I see more of people integrating Mac clients into existing AD environments. Especially since it is done easier and easier with every release of OS X. I think though as long as big companies offer legacy support with Windows XP, the Windows XP market won't go anywhere, it will just stay where it is until MS gets Vienna rolled out. Now if the botch up Vienna then that is a different story.

I think you're giving too much weight to "big companies." They don't drive the market the way they used to, especially with all of the downsizing they've done. There also comes a point where their legacy software is so outdated it just needs to be replaced with something new, and the more Apple innovates, the sooner that will come for XP. As for Vienna, I wouldn't hold my breath, or get my hopes up.

Yup, and how many companies still run Netware servers? Legacy support still goes a long way and still drives business. We just ordered 50 rack mount servers from HP, to become new Netware servers (I think they are slowly starting to migrate away, but its going to take time).

Sure, but who gives much thought to Novell these days? I'm not saying Microsoft will disappear, but once they lose momentum they'll have lost their one true strength.

Novell still has a decent market share, even though they have migrated into Linux based Enterprise solutions. Netware is still an actively used enterprise solution found strongly in education and in some businesses still.

The university from which I retired five years ago still uses Netware.

Notice that both of you use passive terms in describing it. All I'm saying is that while Novell hasn't died, it could hardly be said to be making a comeback. I think that's the fate that awaits MS as soon as they lose any significant amount of market share.

Good point. I don't know of any facility where Netware has been installed recently; all the examples I can think of are legacy.

So are quite a few of the arguments here: legacy users of Microsoft products will continue because it's too expensive to switch at this point, particularly when you consider the cost of reeducating a large (but not particularly computer-savvy) user base and an entire IT staff.

In Universities, for example, the cost of switching rules it out (and I was in a position to know and consider that) and first cost is a barrier too. Apple doesn't really have a corporate or "enterprise" strategy that I can discern, their servers are not perceived to be better than the Linux boxes running everywhere now, and their frequent $100+ System Upgrades are expensive.

Having said all that though, Microsoft has definitely lost its edge, and will fade in time.

We still load netware on our new servers coming in. We are migrating some to Suse Enterprise Linux, but have not made that full roll over yet. Why change if everything works? Also licensing costs come into play. We use zenworks imaging for network deployment of images to work stations. I personally have written shell scripts (since it runs off of the linux side) to help automate the process. These things are still being updated and supported by Novell, and if you own a license to zen works you own the license to the imaging software, which is leagues cheaper than ghost and zen works also allows many other features besides just imaging.

Now Migrating from Netware to Linux or MS solution would not be too painful, our hardware is already in place. If we were to migrate to an OS X solution it would cost us on average $1000-1500 more per server and lots of time and resources spent migrating everything over, or getting the Mac client to authenticate and play with ED/AD nicely.

So, yes it literally costs organizations millions of dollars to migrate if you calculate all the costs involved. That is why MS will not die anytime soon. They have a HUGE market share in the enterprise business.

The consumer side they may suffer.

Also, our apple rep has told us how Jobs feels that Apple is a consumer company, not an enterprise company. So, some things may be addressed but I don't see apple being a contender. Active Directory and Open Directory will still rule the backbone as well as other companies print server, email/calendar solutions, etc. I don't see apple getting that market share ever, until they start making some products for it.