Predict the future!
 

I recently stumbled on an old Usenet discussion back from 1997. They were predicting what would happen in the upcoming years:
Reminds me of that "640k of RAM" saying.

What specs do you think computers will have, say, 5 years from now?

With the new 64-bit processors and whatnot, I'd say that 3GB of ram will be the "standard" in 2012. Perhaps quad-core processors will be standard, and Linux will be a 'mainstream' OS? Who knows?

I predict that computers will continue to evolve as they currently are up to 2017 where people will start switching to monster servers and thin clients. Before the 'great switch' of 2017 the high spec desktop will be a dual 16 core Mac with 160GB RAM and a 100TB Flash Hard Drive.

Windows market share will drop to 59%, Mac up to 25%, Linux up to 16%.

and human shaped robots will vacuum my house :D

Seems like the "holy grail" of computing in recent times has been the development of a "quantum computer." Such a computer would certainly turn all of our existing understanding of computers on its head, and, it is said, classical cryptography would be rendered moot by the ability of a quantum computer to factor large numbers quickly (thus breaking RSA).

There are already some quantum-mechanically powered cryptographic systems out there - I don't really know that much about them, but the fact alone is pretty impressive.

I think developments in quantum computing will end up playing out (a long time from now), and another revolution in cryptography will happen, not unlike the one that started all this, with the "cryptologic bombs" of the Polish, or before that, the development of the vigniere cipher. Scary thought, yes?

I don't think everyday people will be using quantum computers, but the computers we'll be using (I think) will be worlds away from the ones we use now, in every sense. At some point, we'll hit the fundamental limit of how much memory can fit on a disk without interference from thermal noise. A different media for memory will have to be found as "applications" require more and more resources.

In the near future, I think 3d will become commonplace. Heck, "they" are already developing 3d printers! There will definitely be a growing trend towards a more "organic" feel.

I think in coming years a new factor will be thrown into the mix - power management. While I'm by no means a person who'd lie in front of a bulldozer to save a tree, the amount of fossil fuel thats used up to power these new beasts is becoming a very hot topic. Even though Macs are supposed to use up less power than other computers, they still use a heck of a lot.

For this reason, massive servers and thin clients might very well be the way of the future.

Future spec: (my guess)

3GB RAM norm, 6+GB RAM Pro users
500+GB HD norm (desktop) 1TB pro users
250+GB flash norm (laptop)
Laptops have folding keyboards & screens (30') that both can fold down to the 5' of the actual laptop
Broadband will be frowned at in the same light that dial-up is today.

Output:

monitor (see above)
hi-quality satellite speakers that easiy rival current 'box' speakers
3D printing
perhaps 2 firewire 1000 ports (for 3D printer/scanner, as they'd probably need large amounts of data shifted, and the bluetooth of the future may not be quite up to scratch)

Input:

camera built into screen (tiny light sensors between pixels)
mic (OS X & Linux recognise voice commands easily, but M$ opens regedit digs holes in the registry when you tell it to backup(how ironic:D))
3D scanner (can be used with 3D printer to copy objects)
some slots for memory cards (DVDs may be obsolete)
fingerprint scanner (who needs passwords!)
can read thoughts, but not very well, so most use mic instead, but some buy special thought reading software.

electricity no longer needs cables to reach devices either, and all electricall appliances in the house can be turned on/off/programmed via a program on a mobile/laptop (uses finger print and voice recognition so that no one can hack your fridge etc), ifridges order the shopping from online* and tell the iRobot (made by Apple, so they dont go haywire and kill people like the ones in the film) when it arrives, so it can put it in the fridge. All appliances will work in harmony as with the above.

As procesor speeds double every 18 months(i think), it may not be long before the above is laughably low-tech.

Maybe Apple will invent a computer so small it can comfortarble fit inside a cap without disturbing the user, but not loose any of the spec above, or maybe be higher spec.;)

All of a sudden i'm exited about the concept of the Mac i'm typing this on becoming obsolete:cool:

*M$Fridges order wrong quantities of the neighbors M$Fridges, but people still buy them for the same reason the buy Windows today.

i reakon maybe 10 years from now, there will be hd cameras in the macs :) video and stills, all usb devices will be like this http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/Arti...Mini_Kart1.jpg
4gb will be the min, All displays are going to be capable of 1080p, all video cards are going to be at least 512mb but i wouldnt be surprised if that changed to 1gb. 500gb will be the min hd space

@Wee_Guy

Some of these things already exist, like fingerprint scanning. 500GB HDs are already standard on top-of-the-line iMacs. I hear that animated flexible paper is being developed, so perhaps his could be used as a portable screen. Firewire's already up to 800, so perhaps Firewire 1600 is next? Many parts of your home can already be remote controlled too. As for wireless electricity, check this out.

I'm don't think mind reading will exist yet. :)

I can say what my rig will be in 2012:

MacBook Pro C2D
2.16GHz, 1 GB of RAM
120GB HD, 128MB Video card
15'' 1440x900 screen.

Yeah, it's low tech, but I don't give a damn about Intel inside. It's an Apple computer, I expect 5 years out of it at minimum.

I knew that finger print readers existed etc, but i think that at some pont in the near future (few years maybe?) finger print readers will replace passwords. The paper maybe a bit longer, Firewire could be any time, wireless electricity could be a while yet. Mind reading will probably arrive when M$ dies (It'll probably die when Mr Burns dies-ie: in a good few hundred years yet.)

Seagate has already introduced hybrid drives: combo disks and flash. Later this year they will offer their first fully flash "HD" for laptops. I saw 128 MB thumb drives on sale the other day for $8.99 because mult-gig drives are getting cheaper. I see the end of the spinning platter HD ere long.

1TB HDDs?? - Pah!
 

If the prediction in this story come true, then we will look down on TerraByte drives in the same way that we currently do 5.25" floppies.

From the article:
'This substance' is a carbon crystal manipulatied at the atomic level.

I believe that data storage systems will become as common-place in homes as heating and air-con systems are today. Maybe not within 10 years, but possibly within 20. I read somewhere a few years ago that we are supposed to be in the 'Information Age' (cf. the 'Stone Age', 'Iron Age', etc.) and people are already getting to the stage where they are fed-up having lots of different devices storing different types of digital data (e.g. cameras, mp3 players, PVRs, etc.).

The catalyst will be when these different devices are able to communicate in a simple, straight-forward, fast (and secure) manner. I can see this happening within 5 - 10 years. Then household devices such as fridges can be hooked up to store temperature logs, connected to fault diagnosis systems, etc.

For the planet's sake, I just hope we have found a clean and renewable energy source by then to replace fossil fuels.


See you all in the future....

Scary Thought?
 

Having thought about the implications of my last post, and whether or not future generations will be able to extract the data we will store (after all, it can currently be difficult to open a document from 20 years ago...), what if some alien species has stored all of its knowledge in the rocks and minerals in our planet?

We're blindly digging them up, melting them down, breaking them up, and otherwise generally destroying them! We could be losing eons of knowledge without ever realising it!! :eek:

Sorry for going off on a little tangent there... :p

I recall people trying to open some MacPaint files that were in some old compressed archive from System 6, I think.

I hear the U.S. National Archives has a large team of people that convert archival data, may it be from a computer, or book, or scroll, or whatever.

Oh yes think of an archaeologist some 500 hundred years in the future. First they will not know what a harddisk or even worse diskette is. Then they will have to decode the filesystem and finally the fileformat itself.

On a darker point of view, there's always the Canticle for Leibowitz way of imagining it, in which case Gregorian monks would be drawing the flowcharts for computer programs and circuitboards into books, and embellishing them with all varieties of beautiful ornamental doodles, with no idea of their purpose or significance.

Likely, but not in the next four to ten years. After that, well, let's see how the next battle for oil goes.

Well, my views aren't just with computers but technology in general, I will list them

• IP driven TV, stream what you want when you want
  
  Super high speed internet
  
  Diskless movies, you download them to your Computer
  
  Massive HD space
  
  Flash memory more standard
  
  EFI, EFI driven Applications and firmware, no more drivers needed
  
  Apple gaining more market share (if they keep going as projected)
  
  Novell finally biting the bullet
  
  MS will have a decline but come back somehow
  
  Holographic technology

I don't see them coming back from a decline, at least not for decades. Too much of Microsoft's success has been built on the idea that they're successful.

Once they lose that image, they haven't got much to sell because they have never lead the industry in the areas that count the most: ease of use and security. Anybody can write software that gets from point A to point B. It's getting there easily and safely that determines the quality of the product.

Not as long as it costs millions and millions just to migrate to a different platform. Companies will not just toss that kind of investment away. Plus Microsoft's server side solutions really aren't that bad. They offer robustness and functionality for big networks with many users.

But the decline would come from people moving to a different platform! Once that happens, I don't see large numbers spending money to make the jump back.

Even server software has to have a user interface. Frankly, I'm awed by the fact that 23 years after the debut of the Mac, Windows applications are still clumsy, difficult to use kludges that seem to always require two or three extra steps to get a simple task completed.

Well, here in lies the problem with this logic. Already two large PC companies have decided to keep on XP support for their products, all their new products that is. Dell and HP both. They also both offer Ubuntu pre-installed. So really, they are just extending legacy support. MS will have a chance to bounce back with Vienna and learn from their mistakes in Vista. I wouldn't doubt if Vista ends up being WindowsME II, and just like how windows 2000 saved them, Vienna will save Vista. That is of course just my guess, you could be right. I mean everyone could literally switch, but I think it would cost too much. Instead I see more of people integrating Mac clients into existing AD environments. Especially since it is done easier and easier with every release of OS X. I think though as long as big companies offer legacy support with Windows XP, the Windows XP market won't go anywhere, it will just stay where it is until MS gets Vienna rolled out. Now if the botch up Vienna then that is a different story.

I think you're giving too much weight to "big companies." They don't drive the market the way they used to, especially with all of the downsizing they've done. There also comes a point where their legacy software is so outdated it just needs to be replaced with something new, and the more Apple innovates, the sooner that will come for XP. As for Vienna, I wouldn't hold my breath, or get my hopes up.

Yup, and how many companies still run Netware servers? Legacy support still goes a long way and still drives business. We just ordered 50 rack mount servers from HP, to become new Netware servers (I think they are slowly starting to migrate away, but its going to take time).

Sure, but who gives much thought to Novell these days? I'm not saying Microsoft will disappear, but once they lose momentum they'll have lost their one true strength.

Novell still has a decent market share, even though they have migrated into Linux based Enterprise solutions. Netware is still an actively used enterprise solution found strongly in education and in some businesses still.

The university from which I retired five years ago still uses Netware.

Notice that both of you use passive terms in describing it. All I'm saying is that while Novell hasn't died, it could hardly be said to be making a comeback. I think that's the fate that awaits MS as soon as they lose any significant amount of market share.

Good point. I don't know of any facility where Netware has been installed recently; all the examples I can think of are legacy.

So are quite a few of the arguments here: legacy users of Microsoft products will continue because it's too expensive to switch at this point, particularly when you consider the cost of reeducating a large (but not particularly computer-savvy) user base and an entire IT staff.

In Universities, for example, the cost of switching rules it out (and I was in a position to know and consider that) and first cost is a barrier too. Apple doesn't really have a corporate or "enterprise" strategy that I can discern, their servers are not perceived to be better than the Linux boxes running everywhere now, and their frequent $100+ System Upgrades are expensive.

Having said all that though, Microsoft has definitely lost its edge, and will fade in time.

We still load netware on our new servers coming in. We are migrating some to Suse Enterprise Linux, but have not made that full roll over yet. Why change if everything works? Also licensing costs come into play. We use zenworks imaging for network deployment of images to work stations. I personally have written shell scripts (since it runs off of the linux side) to help automate the process. These things are still being updated and supported by Novell, and if you own a license to zen works you own the license to the imaging software, which is leagues cheaper than ghost and zen works also allows many other features besides just imaging.

Now Migrating from Netware to Linux or MS solution would not be too painful, our hardware is already in place. If we were to migrate to an OS X solution it would cost us on average $1000-1500 more per server and lots of time and resources spent migrating everything over, or getting the Mac client to authenticate and play with ED/AD nicely.

So, yes it literally costs organizations millions of dollars to migrate if you calculate all the costs involved. That is why MS will not die anytime soon. They have a HUGE market share in the enterprise business.

The consumer side they may suffer.

Also, our apple rep has told us how Jobs feels that Apple is a consumer company, not an enterprise company. So, some things may be addressed but I don't see apple being a contender. Active Directory and Open Directory will still rule the backbone as well as other companies print server, email/calendar solutions, etc. I don't see apple getting that market share ever, until they start making some products for it.