in 10-20 years, the user interface of computing will change dramatically.

a common example of what computers can be would be the public highways, you use them every day, but you never really notice them being there or know how exacly the road support your vehicle. when computers/computing reaches this level, then we will have truly entered a new era of computing

at this point in time, computers are arcane and complex to majority of the people (hell.. i can't figure out how to add a damn pdf printer on a mac, even though it's automatic in windows once you install adobe acrobat 6 pro), i'd say in 10-20 years, problems like these will go away. common terms such as "folders", "dlls (in windows)" will become extinct because it's the computer's job to be secure, operational, organized; it's our job to be productive w/ the computing tools that we have at hand.

hahah good one! :p

I predict that in 10-20 years, this will be the tip of the iceberg...
 

In 10-20 years, computing technology will be the least of our issues. The important thing will be the legal and social implications of those technologies. Will we really be allowed to "upgrade" our computer, when that means disabling the "Trusted[sic] Computing" chip in it? Will we be allowed to delete our old files, when that means the FBI can't subpoena them later? Will it be illegal to disable the car monitoring computer (even if your reasons are legitimate) because it would also disable the traffic rule enforcement? Will we have control over our personal information at all? Will we have privacy? Will the idea of free exchange of information still exist? Will the future be like Star Trek, or will it be like this?

I predict in 10-20 years, one of the following two things will happen:

Computers will become completely commoditized and work like cudaboy_71 said. You will not control your computer at all -- no loading software yourself, no programming in anything other than something like Applescript, no deleting of sensitive information (yours or the service provider's), and no messing with the hardware. You'll pay a subscription fee to use it, like you do with your cable box. On top of that, you'll pay a fee to load extra programs or media on it, like with cellphone ringtones or iTMS music (or maybe like pay-per-view, who knows). All "legitimate" media will be controlled by the conglomerates, like the RIAA, MPAA, etc.

-or-

The combination of Free Software, P2P copyright infringment, and public use of encryption will force a major shift in copyright and patent law, and result in the collapse of the commercial software industry, and a major shift in the media industry. All content will be free (because with Free Software there's no way to prevent copying), so business models will be based on alternative sources of revenue (advertising (e.g. network TV, radio), services/techsupport (e.g. IBM), hardware (e.g. Apple), donations, patronage (pay for implementation of features you want), live performances for music, etc.).

Hmm... Fascinating thought.
My question is: What would a contemporary virus look like. :eek:

This is only semirelevant to the thread in that it has to do with technology and 10-20 years.

I love computers and many times wish that I had gone into an area which would have me working with computers daily (software engineer, system administrator, etc), but I recognize that the communications aspect of them (email, messaging, etc) is an intrusion on my daily life. I don't do iChat and the like, but I have to spend a lot of time reading and answering email (spam aside). Cellular phones are the same intrusion (although I've avoided that too), and a walk across campus reveals 1/3 of the students talking on the cell phone while walking.

Clearly, this will only get worse. Over time, we will become Borg, except with nicer interfaces (unless Apple founders and Microsoft takes over completely). Resistance is futile.

Please, convince me that I'm wrong before I convert to being Amish. :)

::boots up 15-year old Mac IIfx with System 6.0.8, takes notes, does some extrapolations::

Loosely speaking, we'll be running 800 Ghz processors with 20 gigs of 700-femtosecond RAM and booting MacOS Fourteen off of our 2-petabyte 26,000 RPM drives, and watching the action on our 3200 x 2400 26-inch displays which will be two microns thick.

Typical uptime will be measured in decades. Which will be a very good thing because it will take an hour and a half to boot :p

I agree. I would extend the analogy to cars a well as highways. I heard a quote a few years back saying, "Computers now are where cars were in the 1920s."

Cars have become much simpler to maintain since the 1920s. Computers still have a long way to go, they require way too much tinkering. Computer manufacturers would stand to benefit from improvements in this area due to lower tech support costs. On the other hand, they stand to lose if people are able to keep their computers longer.

Personally, I despise the way people use cell phones. However, the frequent use has made it a cash-cow, so now technology thrives. So there is good and bad.

The problem with human nature is when we come up with a great new technology, there is always the base-human that use it to either rip off others or peak under skirts. To limit the intrusion or sticking to pure analog living is a mark of discipline. We have a cell phone, but use it for emergencies and the "where you, I'm on the corner" kind of calls. We have computers, but limit our addresses to friends and family--deleting anything not in our addressbooks.

To get back to the subject, part of the 10-20 year prediction may see society bored with technology and seek the nostolgic hippie lifestyle of the 60s. There might be an all out rebellion against anything computerized, yet there will be no escaping it. If previous posts are correct, we will see the computer become more utilitarian, not even noticing that it is there.

good point, i'd say the computer hardware is like the highways and the operating system/applications are like the cars that we drive on the highways. both aspects of computing must be elevated to the point where we no longer have to be computer professionals to master their powers. they should be able to repair, maintain and upgrade themselves.

imagine a world where you do not have to spend an hr looking for an email that you sent 6 yrs ago (across multitudes of your archived email files, each with its own format cuz they were created using different mail programs).

imagine a world where we don't have to reboot 10 times everytime we install a copy of windows xp. :) (or imagine a world where we don't have to install OS at all!)

That's funny, because many Windows switchers claim to like OS X because it's got a command line, which is almost exclusively for tinkering.

My feeling is that computers need to grow arms and legs. Business, entertainment, and comunications apps abound. Incremental improvements in these areas won't be enought to sustain growth. Robotics is the only area left that is relatively untapped. It's also the one area that can easily use the super fast processors coming.

there will always be tinkers, i think mac os x is a step in the right direction: on one hand, my gf can use the system and not have to worry too much about things like virus protection, IM security, worms and OS security updates (take it from me.. don't even try to educate a computer iliterate on the importance of checking for os updates), on the other hand, os x allows someone like me to do vi and regexp to my hearts content if i so desire.

however, there are still many aspects of current-day operating systems that i feel are inadequate:

1) folders: why on earth would someone want to have folders, i spent 2grand on a compuer so i can get my job done, i didn't spend 2 grand so i can stop organizing my vanilla folders and start organizing my electronic vanilla folders. the computer should know exactly where to store my files and index my files.

2) file names: same concept here, the computer should pick a name based on what i wrote, whom i wrote a document to, where i wrote it at, the mood that i was in when i wrote it. the computer should also know how to recall that file when i say "i need that email that i wrote to julia when i was drunk off my ass last thursday night", after all, it's a tool, not a god that i pray to everytime i want to find something.

3) software: the computer should know what i need, if i want to make a visio diagram, it should know to download the software necessary. if i got a file that i wan to open via email, it should know to scan for virus, download the necessary software, instead of giving me a "duh, i have no idea wtf is going on, please help me" sign and ask me to provide a clue to it and tell it what program to use to open a particula kind of software.

4) os updates/security: again, the computer should know exactly what to do here. my day job is a usability specialist/project manager, not a microsoft certified security professional. the computer should know when and what to download and do automatic installs. it should also not open up a dialog box and say "hey, i need to stop whatever you are doing and reboot cuz i just installed IE_update_20050201", all this stuff should happen automatically, and should happen w/o interfering with the user. both windows and os x have made big strides here, but we still have a long road to go.

above are just some of the examples of the problems that i see today. granted, it will probably take us 10-20 years to fix all of that, but when we do get there, our productivity will increase tremendously because by then, computers will have become truly ubiquitous, because everyone will be productive w/ a computer.

anyways, this is my pipe dream. :)

mobilebuddha: Got it already. Every email I've ever sent (minus a lost-email period around 1993-4) is in Eudora and I can find anything I've ever sent or received in secionds.

Admittedly, getting those ancient America Online emails out of AOL and into Eudora was no picnic; the vintage 1991 IN_MAIL and OUT_MAIL files from the IBM 3090 mainframe were interesting, too. (Thank God for QuicKeys and FileMaker). The Netscape email, meanwhile, was a snap, just dropped them into the Eudie Mail folder and there they were. (Thank Got for standard formats).

I agree with the earlier portion and #1, but 2, 3, and 4 sound like Microsoft-ware...trying to second-guess what I want. Word trying to tell me what it thinks the grammar should have been, the XP telling me with bubbles the there is new hardware somewhere, a software update available, that there is no wireless signal available, etc.

I like surprises. I hope there will be one or two big surprises in the next 20 years. Maybe a surprise will happen in robotics, that's certainly a possibility.

The WorldWide Web caught a lot of people and a lot of companies in the computer industry by surprise. The rapid growth of the web was just amazing to watch.

Cell phones were not as big of a surprise but the rapid adoption surprised me. They have their problems but are a very reasonably priced way to get on the Internet for those that can't afford a computer. It has been said that the majority of the world's people will first experience the Internet on a mobile phone.

It will be interesting to see what the future brings for the many people in the world who do not use computers yet. Anybody have predictions in that area?

I tip my cap to schneb for starting this thread!

Even though MS did not have a good implementation of the ideas, doesn't mean that those ideas are bad. It is my belief that a truly usable computing platform should allow you to focus on what you intend to accomplish w/ the system (the end goal) instead of worrying about how to get there.

It doesn't necessarily mean they're bad, but in this case they are. Since it's not possible for another intelligent person to know what you want without you telling them, there's no reason to expect that any computer, however advanced, should be able to figure it out. The computer can only provide the tools to get a job done. It's up to you to choose the right ones.

mobilebuddha: How'd I miss this post?

I don't want any of this. If Apple rolls such changes out, I'm downloading hacks to disable this (or re-enable what it takes away).

a) I love folders. I'd enjoy seeing some improved navigation features (translation: I still want PopupFolder behavior in the Finder, dammit!), and both files and folders need some "fields" (columns?) akin to labels and comments but not hardwired to finite existing values or requiring arcane maneuvers to enter, edit, or reference the info. But I want to put my files where I want to put them, organize them as I wish to organize them.

b) I sure as hell don't want my OS naming my files for me. 'Nuff said?

c) No software gets installed without my permission; I don't want the OS to decide what app gets to open what kind of file, either — an ability to figure out what apps can open a given file, sure, but kindly let me map the file types and suffixes to the apps of my choosing. If I want Acrobat Reader and Audion instead of Preview and iTunes, that's my business, and it's my computer.

d) If OS updates and security updates and etc. can install and activate themselves without requiring a reboot, that's cool, but I'm the one who gets to say "Yeah, I'm okaying the installation of that one, having read that it doesn't have any major problems with my model and configuration of Mac other than incompatibility with older versions of QuicKeys which I've just updated to a compatible version".

Hunter, always the purist for GUI. ;)
I think the next OS will have a combination of both. You can either choose to, or not use it. The problem with folders is the constant drilling and organizing. If you look at what Spotlight is all about, imagine every file you have sitting in your hard drive-sans folders (including System files). You do a search or have a Finder window that is based on metadata. It would take alot of work and time in R&D and usability, but it is possible. Tiger may even allow a small look at this. Place all your personal files in one folder and do all of your retreival via Spotlight. This may be the direction Apple is taking. To this end, I still do not see the folder structure going anywhere. There still needs to be a directory system in place.

Robotics? No. Access? Definately!
 

The reason why robotics have not "taken hold" is cost of ownership. Why buy a Roomba Discovery for $250 when you can do a better job yourself? If you are disabled and live alone, perhaps it would be nice, but still, there are drawbacks. I honestly cannot think of a single robotic device for the home that would really be worth the price.
What would really be surprise in the 10-20 year span would be virtual access. Let me give you an example.

You wake up in the morning with a severe pain in your side. You go to your home Macintosh and login to an online family practice. You pay your co-pay via PayPal.
Immediately you are put on a waiting list that you can see-- You are patient 5 in a list of 8. A loud beep can alert that you are at number 2, then number 1.
Before the doctor sees you, and while you are waiting, it asks for some vitals. You put a USB enabled stethescope over the places it directs you and sample the audio. You place a USB enabled bloodpressure band on and the computer automatically takes its measurements. You enter your current weight manually or via a USB scale. Other vitals can be done the same way.

The doctor will see you now and up pops a live video-feed. He looks at your vitals, works on his diagnostic-based computer program which confirms that there is a possibility of appendicitis. An appointment is made to go in to your local hospital for some lab tests and possible surgery.

The computer of tomorrow has to make strides like this to really get that "surprise" factor you hope to acheive.

Thanks to mclbruce for the kudos!

The Roomba is a fantastic invention. I'd buy it again at twice the price. I push a button, leave the house, and when I come home the room is reasonably clean. The difference between the job it does and the "real" vacuum is not detectable by just looking. I'm sure there's a difference, but I don't see it. Meanwhile with two big dogs in the house, I can either live with crap on the floors, vacuum manually every other day, or just let the Roomba work for me.

Same with the automated coffee machine we got recently. We make sure it has fresh-roasted coffee beans and water in it. When we want coffee, we press a button, and have a fresh espresso or large coffee in 30 seconds. It dumps out the used grounds and rinses itself automatically.

The X10 home control system...why would anyone live without such simple, inexpensive automation...?

Some of us are ready for the next level of robotics; something to dust, do the dishes, etc. My housekeeper may not like it, but I will.